Tentative Schedule

        Tuesday, 13 September 2005
        8:30        Registration
        9:00        Welcome, introductions, and course overview - Kimberly M. Thompson
        9:40        The need for probabilistic methods in risk analysis: Why care about variability and
                       uncertainty in risk assessment  - Kimberly M. Thompson
        10:30      Break
        10:45      The wonderful world of probability distributions - Greg Paoli and Kimberly M. Thompson
        12:15      Lunch
        1:30        Monte Carlo simulation in risk assessment - Greg Paoli
        3:00        Break
        3:15        The path from random number generators to two-dimensional simulation - David Burmaster
        5:00        End of lectures for the day
        5:30        Dinner
        6:30        Simulation hands-on exercise - Greg Paoli and Kimberly M. Thompson

        Wednesday, 14 September 2005
        9:00        What do I do with data? - Greg Paoli
        10:30      Break
        10:45      What if I don't have any data and I need to get information from experts? - Roger M. Cooke
        12:15      Lunch
        1:30        How can I put this in the context of a system? - George Apostolakis
        3:00        Break
        3:15        What about time? - Marc Lipsitch
        5:00        End of lectures for the day
        5:30        Dinner
        6:30        Expert judgment hands-on exercise  - Roger M. Cooke

        Thursday, 15 September 2004 - Track 1 (Targeted for the more mathematical)
        9:00       Introduction to decision analysis - David E. Burmaster
        10:30     Break
        10:45     Cool tools and a framework for risk management -  Louis Anthony "Tony" Cox, Jr.
        12:15     Lunch
        1:30       More cool tools and a framework for risk management -  Louis Anthony "Tony" Cox, Jr.
        3:00       Break
        3:15       Value of information analysis - Karl Claxton
        5:00       End of lectures for the day
        5:30       Dinner
        6:30       Value of information hands-on exercise  -  Kimberly M. Thompson

        Thursday, 15 September 2005 - Track 2 (Targeted for the more managerial and clinicians)
        9:00       Making tough choices - Azhar Qureshi
        10:30     Break
        10:45     Valuing information when Making Policy - Karl Claxton
        12:15     Lunch
        1:30       Creating and Evaluating Policies - Azhar Qureshi
        3:00       Break
        3:15       A Synthesis of the Tools Applied to the Management of Risks of Polio - Kimberly M. Thompson
        5:00       End of lectures for the day
        5:30       Dinner
        6:30       Value of information hands-on exercise  -  Kimberly M. Thompson

        Friday, 16 September 2005
        9:00       Economics of risk and consumer choices - Richard Williams
        10:30     Break
        10:45     Communicating uncertainty to the public - Sharon L. Dunwoody
        12:30     Lunch
        1:30       At the interface: Finding a process that works – Kimberly M. Thompson
        2:30       Break
        2:45       Open discussion and debate about probabilistic risk analysis - Kimberly M. Thompson
        3:15       Course closing and evaluation
        3:30       End of course